Production of a critical component of computer hard drives has been severely affected by the recent severe flooding in Bangkok, Thailand, causing the price of the hard drives around the world to triple.
This is one example of the interconnectedness of the impacts of extreme weather events that are “really coming to the fore” because of global warming and associated climate change, says a visiting American expert.
Dr Kristie Ebi, a high-level technical expert at the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), was speaking to staff and students at Stellenbosch University this week.
The IPCC was established jointly by the UN Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organisation to “assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change”.
Its four assessment reports to date – the fifth is due in 2013/14 – have been critical to the work of the UN climate change convention, whose signatories are meeting for the COP17 summit in Durban, starting on Monday, and also to negotiations centred on the future of the convention’s Kyoto Protocol.
Ebi was giving a briefing on the IPCC’s Special Report: Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation, which was released in Kampala, Uganda, last Friday.
Like the assessment reports, this special report is the result of a worldwide scientific collaboration, involving 220 authors from 62 countries and 18 784 review comments.
The tightly composed 28-page report was finalised literally line-by-line during 50 hours of negotiations between scientists and government representatives of UNFCCC signatories, who were “very supportive” of its findings, Ebi said.
It focuses on climate change and its role in altering the frequency, severity and impact of extreme events or disasters, and looks at the costs of both impacts and the actions taken to prepare for, respond to, and recover from extreme events and disasters.
Climatologists have predicted “for quite some time” that climate change would cause very high variability in short time-scale weather events, Ebi explained.
This was because the extra energy in the atmosphere caused by warming would be dissipated through more extreme weather events.
One of the report’s major warnings is that climate change models project “substantial” warming in temperature extremes by the end of this century.
“It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes, and decreases in cold extremes, will occur in the 21st century on the global scale.
“It is very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, or heat waves, will increase over most land areas,” it states.
“Virtually certain” means a 99 to 100 percent probability, “very likely” is 90 to 100 percent probability, and “likely” is 66 to 100 percent.
“One of the important messages we want to get across is that there are a lot of very effective measures out there right now that we can put in to reduce risk,” Ebi said.
* On the web: http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
Headlines of hazard
The impact of climate extremes can be felt locally or regionally across all sectors of the economy, as these headlines compiled by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show.
* Agriculture: “Russia, crippled by drought, bans grain exports”, August 5, 2010 – The New York Times.
* Energy: “Heatwave hits French power production”, August 12, 2003 – The Guardian.
* Water: “Lake Mead is at record low levels. Is the Southwest drying up?”, August 8, 2010 – The Independent.
* Public health: “Pakistan floods: Aid trickles in for victims as cholera spreads in Pakistan’s worst floods”, August 14, 2010 – The Guardian/ Observer.
* Tourism: “Alpine resorts feel heat during record warm spell”, December 8, 2006 – CNN
* Transportation: “Flash flooding causes train to derail”, July 30, 2001 – Chicago Sun Times.
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